The Athens Stock Exchange FTSE Bank Index rallied 16+% today. Someone is bullish on the Greek bailout! The broader Greek stock market up 8.2%. The leaders of Germany, France and Greece agreed to continue talks with "high intensity". This doesn't sound like much progress to me. The Greexit is inconsequential to the market in my opinion anyway. It makes sense for the Greek stock market to react, but the S&P?... I don't think so. Although I don't think the market should react to Greek headlines, I know there will be some reaction until the market's attention snaps to the next headline and Greece is forgotten again. One hour before the European market close (Greek market closed already), our daily Greek headline came out: "IMF leaves talks due to lack of progress." SURPRISE... surprise. Stocks dipped, the 10-year treasury rallied 1 bps and little reaction to the front of the curve where a credit contagion would first manifest itself. yawn...
Good article today about Athanasios Orphanides about Fed policy. Makes you a bit uncomfortable about the current state of monetary policy. Curve flattener today supports the view of early but less Fed hikes.
House set to vote on President Obama's trade bill. These trade negotiations are so important to the global economy, but much of the details of these bills are hammered out behind closed doors and it is difficult to know whether the bill is good or bad and for whom until after the bill is passed and the details are released. Politico has a couple articles on the trade bill: one on Boehner's involvement and one on Pelosi's.
Another interesting article on the basis between swaps in Chicago versus London. Raises some liquidity concerns.